The Week 13 NFL schedule is stacked with great matchups. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the keys to every game, a bold prediction for each matchup and final score picks.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a stat to know for each game, and the Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a matchup rating (on a scale of 1 to 100) and a game projection. ESPN Fantasy‘s Kyle Soppe and ESPN Chalk‘s Dave Bearman hand out helpful nuggets as well. It’s all here to help get you ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full Week 13 slate, including a huge NFC West matchup between two playoff contenders. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 73.1 | Spread: NO -2.5 (45)
What to watch for: Hidden in the camouflage of the Broncos playing last Sunday against the Saints with no quarterbacks available for the game was the fact Denver used a variety of coverage looks and pressures to limit Saints quarterback Taysom Hill to 78 yards passing and sack him three times. If the Falcons can keep the Saints in third-and-long, or even third-and-midrange, they could put it in Hill’s hands and try some of the same things. — Jeff Legwold
Bold prediction: Hill will throw the first two touchdown passes of his career, and wide receiver Michael Thomas will catch his first two of this season. Both of them are long overdue, and the breakthrough will come at Atlanta, even though the Falcons’ defense has shown great improvement lately and just decimated the Raiders last weekend. — Mike Triplett
Stat to know: Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has six games this season with a Total QBR of at least 80, the third most in the NFL. And he needs just three passing touchdowns for his 12th consecutive season with at least 20, which would tie for the fourth-longest streak in NFL history.
What to know for fantasy: Saints running back Alvin Kamara‘s worst two career games against the Falcons on a per-touch basis have come in his past two meetings with the division rivals. The 0.81 points per touch he averaged in Week 11 was the 11th-worst game of his professional career. See Week 13 rankings.
Betting nugget: New Orleans has covered four straight games, including in Week 11 against Atlanta. Read more.
Triplett’s pick: Saints 27, Falcons 22
Legwold’s pick: Saints 23, Falcons 16
FPI prediction: NO, 62.6% (by an average of 4.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Jordan, Saints defense surge to No. 1: “It’s a we thing” … As Falcons improve, Morris showing he’s a serious head-coaching candidate … Falcons’ defense “put it all together,” growing under Morris
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 50.4 | Spread: TEN -6 (53.5)
What to watch for: This game is a matchup of the league’s top two rushing attacks. If it is close into the fourth quarter, it will come down to which team is able to wear the other down. With both defenses committing to stopping the run, don’t be surprised if there is an explosive play off of play-action, too. — Turron Davenport
Stat to know: Henry and Chubb rank 1-2, respectively, in the NFL in rushing yards per game and 100-yard rushing games since the start of last season. The Browns rank No. 1 in the NFL in rushing percentage at 50%, while the Titans are third at 47%.
What to know for fantasy: Since 2018, Henry is averaging 37.1% more fantasy points per game over the Titans’ final seven games than their first nine of the season. See Week 13 rankings.
Trotter’s pick: Titans 38, Browns 30
Davenport’s pick: Titans 35, Browns 28
FPI prediction: TEN, 67.0% (by an average of 5.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Browns looking to prove they’re way more than just good at beating bad teams … Browns’ Chubb, Hunt present biggest challenge yet to Titans’ defense … Titans firmly in driver’s seat in AFC South race with favorable schedule ahead
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 49.3 | Spread: IND -3.5 (50)
What to watch for: Can Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton continue to torch the Texans? In 16 career games against Houston, Hilton has 85 catches for 1,537 yards and 10 touchdowns, by far the most against an AFC South team. And despite a slow start, Hilton is coming off his best outing of the season and has a history of big games at NRG Stadium. — Sarah Barshop
Bold prediction: Houston do-everything defensive lineman J.J. Watt will have his second multisack game of the season. Yes, Colts quarterback Philip Rivers has been sacked only 10 times this season, but there’s a chance starting left tackle Anthony Castonzo will miss the game with a knee injury. It’s hard enough to stop Watt with a starting tackle. It’s really difficult to contain him with a backup. — Mike Wells
Stat to know: The Texans are averaging 83.9 rushing yards per game this season, 31st in the NFL.
What to know for fantasy: For the season, Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson averages 58.1% more fantasy points per throw to Will Fuller than to all other Texans players. On Monday, Fuller was suspended for six games. See Week 13 rankings.
Betting nugget: Houston is 1-5 against the spread (ATS) against teams with winning records this season, and 3-2 ATS against all others. Read more.
Wells’ pick: Colts 27, Texans 23
Barshop’s pick: Colts 24, Texans 21
FPI prediction: HOU, 55.2% (by an average of 1.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: No longer No. 1, Colts defense hindered by slow starts … WR Fuller, CB Roby suspended six games under NFL’s PED policy … Sanchez says surgery to remove tumor “went well” … What Fuller’s suspension means for his future with Texans … Colts activate sack leader Autry off reserve/COVID-19 list … Watson: “Very important” that Texans re-sign Fuller
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 36.7 | Spread: MIN -10.5 (50.5)
What to watch for: With 82 receiving yards against Jacksonville, Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson would become just the fifth rookie to reach 1,000 receiving yards in the first 12 games of his career during the Super Bowl era. Jefferson leads all rookies with 918 receiving yards and ranks second in receptions (52) and touchdown catches (six). — Courtney Cronin
Bold prediction: Vikings tight end Kyle Rudolph will have two touchdown catches. The Jaguars, Jets and Chargers have all given up a league-high nine TD catches to tight ends. Rudolph has just one this season and is coming off season highs in catches (seven) and yards (68) against Carolina. — Mike DiRocco
Stat to know: The Jaguars have allowed 24-plus points in 10 straight games this season, their longest streak of allowing 24 points in franchise history. The Vikings have scored 24-plus points in eight of their 11 games this season, but they are just 4-4 in those games.
What to know for fantasy: Jefferson has surpassed 17.5 fantasy points in back-to-back-to-back games (26 last weekend against the Panthers). See Week 13 rankings.
Betting nugget: All six Minnesota home games have gone over the total this season. Read more.
DiRocco’s pick: Vikings 30, Jaguars 21
Cronin’s pick: Vikings 31, Jaguars 20
FPI prediction: MIN, 83.1% (by an average of 12.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Jaguars go with QB Glennon, not Minshew … Vikings’ Jefferson proves he’s up for a starring role … Marrone still focused on team’s record after GM firing … Vikings activate WR Thielen from COVID-19 list … Why Jaguars have most attractive GM opening in NFL
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 31.1 | Spread: MIA -11.5 (42.5)
What to watch for: Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard leads the NFL with seven interceptions, all over the past nine games. The NFL’s best ball hawk might get a chance to add to his pick total this weekend while facing Brandon Allen, the injury replacement for Joe Burrow at quarterback who committed two turnovers vs. the Giants last weekend. — Cameron Wolfe
Bold prediction: The Bengals will have fewer than 250 yards of total offense. Between a strong pass defense and a Bengals team that is without its starting quarterback (Burrow) and starting running back (Joe Mixon), gaining yards will be a difficult task. — Ben Baby
Stat to know: The Dolphins average 0.06 expected points added per play with quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick on field this season, and minus-0.08 with Tua Tagovailoa. That is equivalent to the difference between the 18th- and 31st-ranked offenses.
What to know for fantasy: Miami wide receiver DeVante Parker racked up 14 targets and 119 yards in Fitzpatrick’s return to the starting lineup. In Tagovailoa’s four starts, Parker averaged 6.3 targets and 39.8 yards per game. See Week 13 rankings.
Betting nugget: Miami has covered in six of its past seven games, and Miami is 17-6 ATS since its Week 5 bye last season, the best mark in the league. Read more.
Baby’s pick: Dolphins 24, Bengals 10
Wolfe’s pick: Dolphins 27, Bengals 13
FPI prediction: MIA, 67.9% (by an average of 6.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Allen: From COVID-proof emergency QB to Bengals starter … Why Dolphins’ playoff push is invaluable for Tagovailoa’s growth … No matter the QB, Dolphins’ defense shows it is key to playoff run
1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 20.0 | Spread: CHI -3…