Review of the main events of the Forex economic calendar for the next trading week (05.07.2021 – 11.07.2021)

Trading on key Forex news: next week we expect the publication of important macro statistics from Australia, Germany, Eurozone, the US, China, Canada, as well as the results of the RB of Australia meeting.

The dollar rose immediately after the publication on Friday of contradictory data provided by the US Department of Labor, according to which the number of jobs in June increased by 850,000. The data for May was revised upwards from +559,000 to +583,000, 5.9% from 5.8% in May. Economists had forecast 706,000 job growth and 5.6% unemployment. The DXY dollar index first rose to 92.75 from 92.65, but then fell to 92.45, ending Friday with a decline, but still finishing the week with an increase of 0.6%.

The fall in the dollar after the publication of the NFP can also probably be associated with profit taking by many market participants at the end of the trading week. Still, this decline is likely to be limited. More and more factors speak in favor of the strengthening of the dollar. Job growth was the highest since August last year and surpassed economists’ forecasts. Another positive signal for the dollar was the reduction in the number of initial jobless claims in the week of June 20-26 by 51,000, to 364,000, which is the minimum for the period of the pandemic.

 The dollar is also in demand again as a defensive asset amid the worldwide spread of the new delta strain of coronavirus.

The American stock indices S&P 500 and NASDAQ100 finished the last week at new record highs, and the industrial DJIA with a decent gain. The June employment report confirmed that the US economy continues to actively recover.

Next week, financial market participants will pay attention to the publication of important macro statistics from Australia, Germany, the Eurozone, the US, China, Canada, as well as the results of the meeting of the RB of Australia.

Traders should pay attention to the publication of the following macro indicators:

*during the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar and / or some scheduled events may be canceled

**GMT time

Monday, July 5

01:30 AUD Retail Sales Index

Retail Sales Index is published monthly by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and measures total retail sales. The index is often considered an indicator of consumer confidence and reflects the health of the retail sector in the near term. A rise in the index is usually positive for the AUD; a decrease in the indicator will negatively affect the AUD. Previous index value (for April) +1.1% (+0.1% preliminary estimate for May). If the data turns out to be weaker than the previous value, the AUD may sharply decline in the short term, but if it’s above the previous values, the AUD is likely to strengthen.

Tuesday, July 6

04:30 AUD RBA’s decision on interest rate. RBA’s accompanying statement

In March 2020, the RBA made 2 rate cuts, bringing it to the level of 0.25%, and launched a quantitative easing program. At the same time, for the 3-year government bonds of Australia, the target level of yield is set at 0.25%. The RBA has launched a lending program for the banking system in the amount of at least A$ 90 billion.

In early November 2020, the RB of Australia lowered its key rate again, bringing it and its 3-year bond target to 0.10% from 0.25%, and announced A$ 100 billion quantitative easing program to support the incipient economic recovery.

The main negative factors for the Australian economy are weak wages growth, a weak labor market and a slowdown in…

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