Main scenario: consider long positions from corrections above the level of 1788.35 with a target of 1958.14 – 2016.10.

Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation below the level of 1788.35 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1673.40 – 1568.91.

Analysis: an ascending third wave of larger degree (3) formed and a descending correction developed as wave (4) on the daily time frame. The fifth wave (5) appears to be developing on the H4 time frame, with the first wave of smaller degree 1 of (5) formed and a downward correction completed as wave 2 of (5) inside. The third wave 3 of (5) started developing on the H1 time frame, with a corrective wave ii of 3 completed and wave iii of 3 forming inside. If the presumption is correct, the pair will continue to rise to the levels of 1958.14 – 2016.10. The level of 1788.35 is critical in this scenario as a breakout will enable the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1673.40 – 1568.91.

Price chart of XAUUSD in real time mode

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