Review of the main events of the Forex economic calendar for the next trading week (01.11.2021 – 07.11.2021)

The dollar rose last week, but ended October in negative territory. Investors are assessing the prospects for the Fed’s monetary policy after US central bank leaders are expected to begin winding down stimulus policies at a November 2-3 meeting, starting by cutting back on purchases in the bond market.

The Fed has maintained its key rate at 0.25% since March 2020, purchasing at least $120 billion in government bonds and mortgage bonds every month since June 2020.

Nevertheless, the opinions of market participants regarding the short-term prospects of the dollar after the Fed meeting were divided. About half of them believe that the Fed’s decision to start curtailing stimulus will not greatly affect the dynamics of the dollar. At the same time, unexpected and more radical statements on the part of the Fed are possible.

If tough signals follow, it will lead to the closure of a significant part of the short positions in the dollar and to its further strengthening. The tougher the statements made by the Fed leaders at the end of the November meeting, the more the dollar will strengthen.

At the same time, optimism prevails on global stock exchanges, associated with expectations of a further recovery in the global economy, both against the backdrop of the unfolding vaccination against coronavirus in Europe and North America, and the overly soft policy of the world’s largest central banks.

Next week, financial market participants will also pay attention to the publication of important macro statistics on Germany, the US, New Zealand, Australia, the Eurozone, Canada, as well as the results of meetings (in addition to the Fed) of the central banks of Australia and the UK.

Traders should also take into account that many European countries switch to winter saving time this coming Sunday. In the United States, this transition will take place a week later.

*during the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar and / or some scheduled events may be canceled

**GMT time

Monday, November 1

07:00 EUR Retail Sales in Germany

Retail sales is the main indicator of consumer spending in Germany showing changes in retail sales. A high result strengthens the euro, and vice versa, a low result weakens it. Forecast: +0.6% (+1.8% in annual terms) in September against +1.1% (+0.4% in annual terms) in August, -5.1% (-0.3% in annualized) in July, +4.2% (+6.2% yoy) in June, +4.2% (-2.4% yoy) in May, -2.0% (+4.4% in annual terms) in April, +7.7% (+11% in annual terms) in March, +1.2% (-9.0% in annual terms) in February, -4.5% ( -8.7% YoY) in January.

The data indicate the instability of the recovery of this sector of the German economy caused by the lockdowns due to the coronavirus pandemic. Better-than-expected data is likely to have a positive effect on the euro, but in the short term.

14:00 USD US Manufacturing PMI (from ISM)

Published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the US Manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of the health of the US economy as a whole. A result above 50 is seen as positive and strengthens the USD, one below 50 as negative for the US dollar. Forecast: 60.4 in October (against 61.1 in September, 59.9 in August, 59.5 in July, 60.6 in June, 61.2 in May, 60.7 in April, 64.7 in March , 60.8 in February 58.7 in January, 60.7 in December). The index is above the 50 level and has a relatively high value, which is likely to support the dollar, despite the relative slight decline in the indicator. The data above the…

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